prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
63% 9 Minnesota 24 25.5, 32 Detroit 10 14.8
60% 31 Arizona 24 20.7, 30 Oakland 23 17.7
60% 24 Kansas City 31 18.8, 25 San Francisco 10 15.7
60% 6 Indianapolis 27 23.8, 22 Denver 13 20.9
60% 3 New England 38 23.8, 26 Buffalo 30 13.5
59% 2 Baltimore 24 18.0, 21 Cleveland 17 9.8
54% 28 St. Louis 30 16.7, 23 Washington 16 15.5
54% 19 Philadelphia 28 21.2, 29 Jacksonville 3 20.2
52% 1 Tennessee 29 21.1, 16 New York Giants 10 20.3
44% 8 New York Jets 31 15.3, 11 Miami 23 16.9
41% 14 Pittsburgh 38 14.4, 12 Tampa Bay 13 16.9
40% 27 Seattle 27 20.1, 5 San Diego 20 23.2
40% 20 Chicago 20 20.2, 4 Green Bay 17 23.1
40% 18 Dallas 27 20.1, 15 Houston 13 24.1
40% 17 Cincinnati 20 15.3, 13 Carolina 7 18.6
40% 7 Atlanta 27 18.6, 10 New Orleans 24 21.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
14 0.86 2 1.62 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 9.4 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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