prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
62% 7 Pittsburgh 28 19.2, 22 Cleveland 10 11.8
61% 13 New York Giants 28 24.6, 30 Detroit 20 17.2
60% 25 San Francisco 17 18.6, 29 Oakland 9 14.8
60% 11 Philadelphia 31 19.8, 8 Atlanta 17 17.6
60% 5 Indianapolis 27 19.1, 23 Washington 24 16.3
60% 1 Tennessee 30 20.2, 28 Jacksonville 3 17.5
59% 17 Houston 35 22.6, 19 Kansas City 31 18.6
59% 12 Minnesota 24 21.1, 18 Dallas 21 17.6
59% 4 New England 23 21.9, 2 Baltimore 20 17.3
55% 6 New York Jets 24 19.2, 24 Denver 20 18.3
43% 16 New Orleans 31 18.6, 14 Tampa Bay 6 19.7
41% 27 Seattle 23 16.0, 21 Chicago 20 19.5
41% 15 Miami 23 18.5, 9 Green Bay 20 23.8
40% 32 St. Louis 20 16.7, 3 San Diego 17 24.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.13 2 1.62 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 8.3 1.20
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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