prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
62% 1 Baltimore 37 20.8, 25 Buffalo 34 11.9
61% 8 Tampa Bay 18 19.2, 32 St. Louis 17 9.8
59% 28 Seattle 22 24.0, 30 Arizona 10 20.1
59% 19 Kansas City 42 20.5, 26 Jacksonville 20 16.3
59% 12 Atlanta 39 19.4, 17 Cincinnati 32 15.8
59% 10 Carolina 23 17.8, 27 San Francisco 20 11.9
59% 9 Green Bay 28 23.4, 11 Minnesota 24 19.4
59% 2 Tennessee 37 20.4, 13 Philadelphia 19 16.1
41% 29 Oakland 59 16.1, 24 Denver 14 21.0
41% 18 New York Giants 41 18.0, 16 Dallas 35 21.2
41% 5 Pittsburgh 23 16.5, 14 Miami 22 17.9
40% 22 Washington 17 14.9, 21 Chicago 14 17.9
40% 6 New England 23 23.5, 4 San Diego 20 26.1
37% 23 Cleveland 30 16.1, 15 New Orleans 17 22.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.92 3 1.07 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 8.4 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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