prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
72% 8 Minnesota 27 27.6, 32 Arizona 24 19.5
61% 9 Green Bay 45 24.0, 19 Dallas 7 18.7
60% 4 Baltimore 26 21.4, 13 Miami 10 16.1
60% 3 New York Jets 23 21.4, 30 Detroit 20 18.3
59% 10 Atlanta 27 19.7, 11 Tampa Bay 21 15.9
57% 16 New York Giants 41 20.5, 28 Seattle 7 19.2
57% 7 San Diego 29 25.4, 20 Houston 23 24.5
50% 26 Oakland 23 18.6, 17 Kansas City 20 18.6
50% 15 Philadelphia 26 21.0, 5 Indianapolis 24 21.1
50% 6 Pittsburgh 27 17.2, 18 Cincinnati 21 17.3
41% 22 Chicago 22 16.9, 27 Buffalo 19 18.5
41% 21 Cleveland 34 17.4, 2 New England 14 21.3
41% 12 New Orleans 34 17.3, 14 Carolina 3 18.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.97 1 1.64 1 1.39 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 8 7.5 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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