prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 3 Indianapolis 23 28.5, 22 Cincinnati 17 17.6
81% 20 Tampa Bay 31 21.3, 29 Carolina 16 16.3
80% 8 New York Jets 26 22.0, 21 Cleveland 20 16.6
77% 27 San Francisco 23 21.3, 32 St. Louis 20 17.1
77% 11 Philadelphia 59 23.9, 19 Washington 28 20.3
50% 12 Atlanta 26 22.2, 6 Baltimore 21 22.2
46% 31 Buffalo 14 24.7, 25 Detroit 12 25.1
45% 23 Jacksonville 31 25.8, 17 Houston 24 26.1
41% 16 Chicago 27 20.9, 13 Minnesota 13 21.6
34% 28 Denver 49 22.7, 18 Kansas City 29 24.8
33% 4 New England 39 22.6, 2 Pittsburgh 26 24.8
24% 30 Seattle 36 21.6, 24 Arizona 18 25.3
22% 15 Miami 29 21.2, 1 Tennessee 17 25.0
9% 26 Dallas 33 19.5, 10 New York Giants 20 30.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.00 2 0.00 5 0.77 1 1.23 2 0.55 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 5 10.0 0.50
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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