prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 3 Pittsburgh 27 26.8, 30 Carolina 3 11.5
90% 1 New England 34 31.1, 23 Buffalo 3 19.2
85% 18 Tampa Bay 38 25.1, 29 Seattle 15 18.0
80% 7 Baltimore 20 22.5, 21 Cleveland 10 17.4
65% 8 Green Bay 45 25.0, 9 New York Giants 17 22.8
62% 10 Indianapolis 31 26.7, 17 Oakland 26 24.7
57% 13 Chicago 38 20.2, 11 New York Jets 34 19.4
45% 32 St. Louis 25 18.8, 24 San Francisco 17 19.5
43% 19 Kansas City 34 21.4, 12 Tennessee 14 22.4
32% 6 New Orleans 17 25.4, 4 Atlanta 14 27.9
31% 27 Arizona 27 25.9, 20 Dallas 26 28.3
21% 31 Denver 24 24.0, 14 Houston 23 28.9
17% 28 Detroit 34 18.4, 16 Miami 27 26.0
16% 25 Washington 20 20.1, 15 Jacksonville 17 26.8
11% 22 Minnesota 24 19.9, 5 Philadelphia 14 29.4
10% 26 Cincinnati 34 18.6, 2 San Diego 20 28.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.59 4 0.76 2 0.63 7 0.49 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 7 12.0 0.58
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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