prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 13 Chicago 35 25.9, 28 Seattle 24 17.5
76% 2 Pittsburgh 31 21.0, 5 Baltimore 24 18.0
45% 3 Green Bay 48 22.7, 6 Atlanta 21 23.5
11% 9 New York Jets 28 19.6, 1 New England 21 29.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 0 0.00 1 1.32 2 0.57 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 2 3.1 0.65
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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