prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 7 New York Jets 27 28.0, 15 Dallas 24 18.6
77% 5 San Diego 24 28.2, 14 Minnesota 17 18.7
71% 8 Philadelphia 31 28.8, 32 St. Louis 13 16.9
67% 1 New England 38 28.7, 17 Miami 24 19.9
66% 3 Green Bay 42 30.5, 9 New Orleans 34 23.2
64% 27 San Francisco 33 23.2, 31 Seattle 17 18.9
56% 4 Baltimore 35 21.5, 2 Pittsburgh 7 18.7
52% 13 Chicago 30 22.6, 10 Atlanta 12 22.4
51% 19 Cincinnati 27 20.3, 22 Cleveland 17 20.2
47% 30 Arizona 28 21.9, 24 Carolina 21 22.3
45% 20 Jacksonville 16 21.9, 12 Tennessee 14 22.9
44% 23 Oakland 23 22.8, 28 Denver 20 25.4
44% 21 Washington 28 21.4, 11 New York Giants 14 23.9
44% 18 Houston 34 24.4, 6 Indianapolis 7 28.7
41% 25 Buffalo 41 20.4, 26 Kansas City 7 23.4
24% 29 Detroit 27 19.0, 16 Tampa Bay 20 27.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.61 3 1.52 4 0.99 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 9.9 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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