prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 17 Dallas 34 30.2, 32 St. Louis 7 13.7
77% 5 New Orleans 62 33.9, 22 Indianapolis 7 23.0
77% 4 Pittsburgh 32 29.7, 31 Arizona 20 16.8
72% 3 Green Bay 33 27.6, 23 Minnesota 27 20.0
63% 6 New York Jets 27 25.5, 7 San Diego 21 21.2
58% 25 Cleveland 6 22.9, 29 Seattle 3 19.6
53% 11 Chicago 24 21.4, 20 Tampa Bay 18 20.6
51% 26 Carolina 33 19.7, 21 Washington 20 19.5
48% 9 Atlanta 23 26.0, 13 Detroit 16 26.6
35% 27 Denver 18 21.0, 24 Miami 15 26.0
34% 14 Houston 41 20.5, 10 Tennessee 7 25.3
18% 30 Kansas City 28 19.1, 18 Oakland 0 29.4
17% 28 Jacksonville 12 14.2, 2 Baltimore 7 25.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.40 3 0.52 3 1.32 3 0.39 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 8 8.9 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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