prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 5 New Orleans 27 31.8, 20 Tampa Bay 16 20.6
79% 11 Houston 30 25.6, 28 Cleveland 12 16.5
77% 18 Dallas 23 29.1, 31 Seattle 13 19.2
70% 30 Arizona 19 25.8, 32 St. Louis 13 19.7
56% 13 San Francisco 19 20.2, 23 Washington 11 17.2
56% 9 Atlanta 31 26.9, 25 Indianapolis 7 24.0
55% 2 Green Bay 45 26.9, 8 San Diego 38 25.1
51% 6 New York Jets 27 23.4, 12 Buffalo 11 23.2
42% 27 Miami 31 19.0, 26 Kansas City 3 22.4
40% 3 Baltimore 23 18.1, 4 Pittsburgh 20 21.8
35% 17 Cincinnati 24 19.2, 16 Tennessee 17 23.9
35% 10 Chicago 30 21.7, 7 Philadelphia 24 26.4
30% 29 Denver 38 22.2, 21 Oakland 24 28.8
21% 15 New York Giants 24 20.9, 1 New England 20 34.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.44 4 0.38 4 0.66 1 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 9.3 0.86
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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