prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 1 Green Bay 45 32.7, 19 Minnesota 7 17.3
65% 21 Miami 20 20.8, 25 Washington 9 16.0
61% 9 Chicago 37 26.4, 14 Detroit 13 22.0
61% 4 Pittsburgh 24 23.4, 16 Cincinnati 17 18.7
56% 18 Dallas 44 25.9, 15 Buffalo 7 23.5
56% 13 San Francisco 27 24.1, 12 New York Giants 20 21.4
55% 17 Tennessee 30 22.4, 23 Carolina 3 21.0
55% 11 Houston 37 23.2, 20 Tampa Bay 9 22.0
47% 2 New England 37 24.3, 5 New York Jets 16 24.9
45% 28 Denver 17 23.1, 29 Kansas City 10 25.1
45% 6 New Orleans 26 26.2, 7 Atlanta 23 27.9
44% 22 Jacksonville 17 20.9, 27 Indianapolis 3 23.6
25% 24 Oakland 24 20.7, 8 San Diego 17 32.4
24% 32 St. Louis 13 13.2, 26 Cleveland 12 21.2
23% 30 Seattle 22 15.3, 3 Baltimore 17 27.0
18% 31 Arizona 21 21.0, 10 Philadelphia 17 34.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.91 3 1.61 3 0.00 2 0.59 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 10.2 0.78
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net