prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 1 Green Bay 35 33.5, 23 Tampa Bay 26 15.0
88% 2 New England 34 36.0, 31 Kansas City 3 12.8
83% 14 San Francisco 23 28.8, 30 Arizona 7 17.7
77% 4 Baltimore 31 27.1, 17 Cincinnati 24 16.0
74% 16 Detroit 49 27.9, 26 Carolina 35 20.7
68% 9 Atlanta 23 25.1, 15 Tennessee 17 19.4
63% 7 Chicago 31 26.8, 10 San Diego 20 22.6
58% 13 Dallas 27 23.3, 24 Washington 24 19.7
56% 19 Miami 35 22.9, 18 Buffalo 8 19.9
55% 28 Seattle 24 19.7, 32 St. Louis 7 18.6
46% 27 Cleveland 14 17.1, 21 Jacksonville 10 17.9
42% 12 Philadelphia 17 24.9, 11 New York Giants 10 28.5
38% 22 Oakland 27 21.0, 20 Minnesota 21 25.9
33% 25 Denver 17 20.7, 6 New York Jets 13 26.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.07 4 0.77 2 1.33 3 1.16 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 9.5 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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