prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 8 Atlanta 24 28.3, 21 Minnesota 14 17.4
83% 7 New York Jets 28 28.3, 22 Buffalo 24 16.7
80% 3 Pittsburgh 13 26.4, 31 Kansas City 9 14.1
76% 17 Cincinnati 23 23.7, 26 Cleveland 20 16.5
75% 15 Tennessee 23 25.0, 19 Tampa Bay 17 17.2
75% 4 Baltimore 16 24.8, 13 San Francisco 6 15.1
68% 5 New Orleans 49 31.6, 12 New York Giants 24 24.4
66% 14 Dallas 20 25.3, 18 Miami 19 19.6
64% 2 Green Bay 27 32.4, 16 Detroit 15 24.7
59% 9 Houston 20 23.0, 23 Jacksonville 13 19.3
58% 1 New England 38 29.0, 11 Philadelphia 20 24.7
55% 30 Arizona 23 22.2, 32 St. Louis 20 20.9
41% 25 Washington 23 18.1, 27 Seattle 17 21.4
40% 28 Carolina 27 21.6, 29 Indianapolis 19 26.0
37% 20 Oakland 25 20.5, 6 Chicago 20 25.4
22% 24 Denver 16 21.2, 10 San Diego 13 31.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.30 5 0.93 5 1.04 2 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 11.0 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net