2011 Week 13 (1-5 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 88%   1 New England             31 37.0,    28 Indianapolis            24 15.7
 86%  14 San Francisco           26 24.8,    32 St. Louis                0  9.6
 78%   4 Pittsburgh              35 27.1,    16 Cincinnati               7 16.4
 75%   3 Baltimore               24 24.3,    26 Cleveland               10 13.7
 69%   6 New York Jets           34 22.9,    25 Washington              19 17.0
 69%   5 New Orleans             31 34.8,    17 Detroit                 17 25.3
 64%   2 Green Bay               38 30.0,    15 New York Giants         35 24.1
 63%  18 Miami                   34 23.9,    19 Oakland                 14 19.6
 56%  13 Tennessee               23 23.7,    23 Buffalo                 17 21.4
 56%  10 San Diego               38 23.2,    24 Jacksonville            14 21.1
 56%   8 Houston                 17 24.9,     9 Atlanta                 10 22.6

 42%  29 Seattle                 31 21.8,    11 Philadelphia            14 26.1
 37%  22 Denver                  35 20.9,    21 Minnesota               32 25.4
 35%  30 Arizona                 19 23.3,    12 Dallas                  13 29.4
 31%  27 Carolina                38 19.1,    20 Tampa Bay               19 25.0
 12%  31 Kansas City             10 13.3,     7 Chicago                  3 27.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                4 1.33   7 0.87   2 1.30   3 0.76   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  11  11.0 1.00

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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