prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 1 New England 31 37.0, 28 Indianapolis 24 15.7
86% 14 San Francisco 26 24.8, 32 St. Louis 0 9.6
78% 4 Pittsburgh 35 27.1, 16 Cincinnati 7 16.4
75% 3 Baltimore 24 24.3, 26 Cleveland 10 13.7
69% 6 New York Jets 34 22.9, 25 Washington 19 17.0
69% 5 New Orleans 31 34.8, 17 Detroit 17 25.3
64% 2 Green Bay 38 30.0, 15 New York Giants 35 24.1
63% 18 Miami 34 23.9, 19 Oakland 14 19.6
56% 13 Tennessee 23 23.7, 23 Buffalo 17 21.4
56% 10 San Diego 38 23.2, 24 Jacksonville 14 21.1
56% 8 Houston 17 24.9, 9 Atlanta 10 22.6
42% 29 Seattle 31 21.8, 11 Philadelphia 14 26.1
37% 22 Denver 35 20.9, 21 Minnesota 32 25.4
35% 30 Arizona 19 23.3, 12 Dallas 13 29.4
31% 27 Carolina 38 19.1, 20 Tampa Bay 19 25.0
12% 31 Kansas City 10 13.3, 7 Chicago 3 27.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.33 7 0.87 2 1.30 3 0.76 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 11.0 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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