prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 4 Baltimore 24 30.7, 25 Indianapolis 10 14.7
87% 6 New York Jets 37 27.3, 31 Kansas City 10 12.3
86% 3 Pittsburgh 14 27.5, 28 Cleveland 3 10.2
86% 2 Green Bay 46 35.1, 20 Oakland 16 18.2
79% 29 Seattle 30 23.6, 32 St. Louis 13 14.4
79% 9 San Diego 37 31.1, 23 Buffalo 10 20.2
76% 1 New England 34 29.8, 26 Washington 27 18.0
66% 8 Atlanta 31 25.1, 24 Carolina 23 19.7
62% 17 Detroit 34 27.9, 21 Minnesota 28 23.4
57% 27 Jacksonville 41 21.5, 22 Tampa Bay 14 18.8
56% 7 Houston 20 24.8, 18 Cincinnati 19 22.1
55% 5 New Orleans 22 26.4, 11 Tennessee 17 24.9
45% 19 Denver 13 22.6, 10 Chicago 10 23.6
44% 15 Philadelphia 26 21.4, 16 Miami 10 24.1
44% 13 New York Giants 37 24.9, 14 Dallas 34 27.8
35% 30 Arizona 21 19.1, 12 San Francisco 19 23.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.90 3 1.04 3 1.29 4 1.15 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 11.1 1.08
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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