prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 9 Atlanta 41 26.2, 22 Jacksonville 14 15.4
72% 18 Cincinnati 20 24.3, 32 St. Louis 13 16.4
66% 4 New Orleans 42 29.5, 20 Minnesota 20 23.8
65% 2 New England 41 30.9, 19 Denver 23 22.5
55% 28 Arizona 20 22.2, 29 Cleveland 17 20.3
55% 17 Miami 30 21.9, 27 Buffalo 23 20.6
55% 14 Dallas 31 25.1, 26 Tampa Bay 15 23.8
55% 7 San Diego 34 24.0, 5 Baltimore 14 22.5
51% 16 Detroit 28 26.9, 21 Oakland 27 26.7
50% 11 Philadelphia 45 23.8, 6 New York Jets 19 23.8
45% 23 Indianapolis 27 22.0, 12 Tennessee 13 23.0
40% 15 San Francisco 20 16.0, 3 Pittsburgh 3 20.5
23% 30 Seattle 38 15.9, 10 Chicago 14 25.9
21% 24 Washington 23 19.8, 13 New York Giants 10 28.6
18% 31 Kansas City 19 16.4, 1 Green Bay 14 30.9
18% 25 Carolina 28 18.0, 8 Houston 13 28.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.14 2 1.52 3 0.44 3 0.41 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.4 0.86
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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