prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 7 Atlanta 45 30.0, 30 Tampa Bay 24 16.7
84% 1 New England 49 36.5, 25 Buffalo 21 17.1
83% 8 Philadelphia 34 28.4, 24 Washington 10 17.4
81% 3 New Orleans 45 33.1, 20 Carolina 17 19.7
77% 2 Green Bay 45 34.7, 14 Detroit 41 21.8
76% 4 Pittsburgh 13 23.1, 29 Cleveland 9 12.7
75% 12 San Francisco 34 21.7, 32 St. Louis 27 12.2
64% 11 New York Giants 31 28.5, 16 Dallas 14 23.5
64% 6 San Diego 38 28.1, 22 Oakland 26 22.9
62% 5 Baltimore 24 23.8, 18 Cincinnati 16 19.0
55% 27 Jacksonville 19 22.8, 19 Indianapolis 13 21.6
52% 28 Arizona 23 24.0, 23 Seattle 20 23.5
47% 17 Miami 19 20.8, 9 New York Jets 17 21.4
45% 15 Chicago 17 22.2, 21 Minnesota 13 23.2
41% 13 Tennessee 23 20.3, 10 Houston 22 23.8
29% 31 Kansas City 7 18.6, 26 Denver 3 24.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.73 3 1.59 4 1.00 4 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 11.0 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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