prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
71% 3 New Orleans 45 35.4, 15 Detroit 28 24.1
63% 12 Houston 31 26.1, 18 Cincinnati 10 21.1
55% 10 New York Giants 24 26.1, 8 Atlanta 2 24.7
30% 27 Denver 29 17.8, 4 Pittsburgh 23 25.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.81 2 0.75 1 1.40 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 3 2.6 1.16
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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