prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 1 New England 45 37.6, 25 Denver 10 17.6
76% 5 Baltimore 20 26.0, 11 Houston 13 17.8
39% 14 San Francisco 36 22.0, 3 New Orleans 32 27.3
25% 10 New York Giants 37 22.1, 2 Green Bay 20 32.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 1 0.00 2 0.66 1 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 2 3.0 0.67
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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