prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
57% 2 Baltimore 44 19.8, 6 Cincinnati 13 15.0
56% 12 New York Jets 48 20.1, 20 Buffalo 28 16.1
55% 4 Houston 30 19.7, 18 Miami 10 16.1
54% 26 Minnesota 26 19.7, 23 Jacksonville 23 17.0
53% 22 Detroit 27 20.3, 31 St. Louis 23 17.8
53% 17 Arizona 20 19.8, 21 Seattle 16 17.8
52% 9 San Diego 22 19.9, 29 Oakland 14 18.6
51% 32 Tampa Bay 16 18.2, 24 Carolina 10 17.2
50% 25 Chicago 41 18.7, 16 Indianapolis 21 18.4
50% 15 Atlanta 40 18.2, 30 Kansas City 24 18.4
48% 13 Philadelphia 17 17.1, 10 Cleveland 16 18.5
48% 3 New England 34 18.4, 7 Tennessee 13 19.7
47% 28 Denver 31 17.2, 1 Pittsburgh 19 19.3
46% 19 Dallas 24 17.4, 11 New York Giants 17 20.4
44% 14 San Francisco 30 16.4, 8 Green Bay 22 20.7
42% 27 Washington 40 16.4, 5 New Orleans 32 22.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
16 1.05 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 8.6 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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