prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
60% 29 Buffalo 35 35.0, 31 Kansas City 17 30.0
60% 16 New York Giants 41 23.3, 23 Tampa Bay 34 18.2
60% 3 Houston 27 28.1, 18 Jacksonville 7 22.2
59% 6 San Francisco 27 34.3, 21 Detroit 19 21.0
59% 5 Atlanta 27 34.7, 11 Denver 21 27.5
57% 7 San Diego 38 28.7, 22 Tennessee 10 15.5
54% 26 Miami 35 20.9, 24 Oakland 13 18.8
49% 13 Green Bay 23 30.0, 8 Chicago 10 30.5
48% 27 Carolina 35 27.0, 15 New Orleans 27 28.0
47% 30 Indianapolis 23 28.2, 17 Minnesota 20 29.4
42% 32 Cincinnati 34 19.9, 20 Cleveland 27 23.6
41% 14 Pittsburgh 27 27.2, 4 New York Jets 10 31.4
41% 12 Philadelphia 24 22.0, 2 Baltimore 23 30.6
40% 28 St. Louis 31 23.6, 10 Washington 28 30.4
40% 25 Seattle 27 18.9, 9 Dallas 7 24.4
32% 19 Arizona 20 14.9, 1 New England 18 38.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.81 3 0.53 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 7 9.3 0.75
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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