prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
70% 6 Chicago 23 32.0, 30 St. Louis 6 17.9
59% 9 Buffalo 24 28.1, 25 Cleveland 14 23.0
59% 4 Houston 31 29.4, 21 Denver 25 25.1
59% 3 Baltimore 31 27.4, 2 New England 30 24.8
58% 24 Tennessee 44 29.7, 28 Detroit 41 23.3
56% 27 Dallas 16 27.9, 22 Tampa Bay 10 26.1
55% 19 Seattle 14 25.4, 12 Green Bay 12 24.5
46% 13 New York Jets 23 22.1, 16 Miami 20 23.4
45% 18 Minnesota 24 24.0, 5 San Francisco 13 25.0
45% 11 New York Giants 36 28.9, 14 Carolina 7 30.8
43% 29 Jacksonville 22 21.8, 26 Indianapolis 17 28.6
41% 23 Cincinnati 38 27.1, 17 Washington 31 31.2
40% 20 Arizona 27 23.8, 10 Philadelphia 6 25.2
39% 32 Oakland 34 19.1, 7 Pittsburgh 31 28.2
29% 8 Atlanta 27 21.6, 1 San Diego 3 38.6
25% 31 Kansas City 27 26.1, 15 New Orleans 24 37.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.87 1 0.00 3 0.46 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 7 9.6 0.73
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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