prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
73% 5 Baltimore 23 30.7, 30 Cleveland 16 13.6
70% 3 Atlanta 30 32.4, 24 Carolina 28 18.2
59% 6 Houston 38 30.2, 20 Tennessee 14 22.0
58% 13 Cincinnati 27 29.3, 29 Jacksonville 10 26.3
58% 11 Arizona 24 23.4, 15 Miami 21 20.2
58% 8 Chicago 34 23.3, 25 Dallas 18 20.8
57% 26 Denver 37 29.5, 23 Oakland 6 25.9
57% 16 Green Bay 28 31.9, 9 New Orleans 27 28.7
57% 2 New England 52 31.4, 10 Buffalo 28 26.9
56% 21 Washington 24 29.0, 31 Tampa Bay 22 27.6
56% 4 San Diego 37 30.1, 28 Kansas City 20 22.1
43% 32 St. Louis 19 17.9, 19 Seattle 13 22.9
42% 14 San Francisco 34 21.0, 12 New York Jets 0 25.1
41% 22 Philadelphia 19 23.2, 1 New York Giants 17 32.0
41% 17 Minnesota 20 29.2, 18 Detroit 13 30.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 1.20 1 1.44 1 1.38 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 11 8.9 1.23
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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