prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 1 New England 31 38.0, 17 Denver 21 22.1
79% 3 New York Giants 41 33.5, 28 Cleveland 27 16.5
71% 9 Pittsburgh 16 29.2, 22 Philadelphia 14 18.3
63% 2 Atlanta 24 31.9, 20 Washington 17 23.0
61% 7 San Francisco 45 29.5, 14 Buffalo 3 21.3
58% 15 Minnesota 30 28.9, 21 Tennessee 7 21.5
57% 18 Seattle 16 21.9, 27 Carolina 12 20.4
57% 10 Chicago 41 25.4, 31 Jacksonville 3 19.2
57% 6 Baltimore 9 27.7, 24 Kansas City 6 20.6
57% 5 Houston 23 27.8, 19 New York Jets 17 23.2
43% 25 Indianapolis 30 24.7, 8 Green Bay 27 29.9
43% 16 Miami 17 23.0, 11 Cincinnati 13 27.7
41% 13 New Orleans 31 30.5, 4 San Diego 24 32.0
39% 32 St. Louis 17 18.1, 12 Arizona 3 26.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.09 3 1.08 2 1.33 1 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 8.8 1.14
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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