prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 3 Atlanta 23 34.7, 27 Oakland 20 17.8
77% 6 Baltimore 31 30.3, 26 Dallas 29 14.0
67% 14 Miami 17 27.3, 31 St. Louis 14 13.5
58% 22 New York Jets 35 25.9, 19 Indianapolis 9 23.0
54% 30 Tampa Bay 38 24.5, 25 Kansas City 10 23.5
43% 29 Cleveland 34 21.4, 13 Cincinnati 24 27.3
42% 24 Tennessee 26 21.3, 10 Pittsburgh 23 25.4
42% 23 Washington 38 24.2, 12 Minnesota 26 28.4
41% 18 Seattle 24 20.9, 1 New England 23 27.9
41% 2 New York Giants 26 27.3, 4 San Francisco 3 29.4
40% 20 Buffalo 19 21.5, 15 Arizona 16 27.9
35% 9 Green Bay 42 24.8, 5 Houston 24 31.2
27% 21 Detroit 26 25.9, 16 Philadelphia 23 32.4
26% 17 Denver 35 22.0, 7 San Diego 24 32.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.50 3 0.52 3 0.45 1 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 5 9.0 0.55
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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