prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 2 New England 29 32.8, 15 New York Jets 26 19.1
78% 1 New York Giants 27 37.3, 22 Washington 23 22.3
75% 6 Chicago 13 33.8, 21 Detroit 7 23.6
68% 5 Green Bay 30 30.9, 32 St. Louis 20 18.5
63% 13 Minnesota 21 26.8, 18 Arizona 14 20.9
60% 27 Oakland 26 26.6, 31 Jacksonville 23 20.4
60% 24 Indianapolis 17 28.1, 30 Cleveland 13 20.5
60% 8 San Francisco 13 23.9, 16 Seattle 6 15.5
59% 9 Pittsburgh 24 26.3, 12 Cincinnati 17 24.3
58% 11 New Orleans 35 32.9, 26 Tampa Bay 28 27.8
53% 10 Houston 43 26.2, 3 Baltimore 13 25.7
51% 25 Dallas 19 22.9, 29 Carolina 14 22.8
45% 20 Tennessee 35 25.0, 23 Buffalo 34 26.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.52 3 1.57 2 1.30 1 1.25 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 12 8.2 1.46
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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