prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 1 New England 37 37.8, 25 Buffalo 31 19.7
76% 10 San Francisco 24 28.9, 32 St. Louis 24 11.3
75% 7 Pittsburgh 16 29.5, 30 Kansas City 13 13.8
72% 9 Baltimore 55 32.5, 28 Oakland 20 18.8
58% 17 Seattle 28 22.5, 14 New York Jets 7 19.7
57% 23 Indianapolis 27 25.3, 31 Jacksonville 10 22.6
57% 22 Minnesota 34 29.6, 15 Detroit 24 26.7
57% 12 Denver 36 26.9, 29 Carolina 14 21.8
47% 11 New Orleans 31 28.3, 6 Atlanta 27 28.8
43% 21 Tennessee 37 20.3, 13 Miami 3 26.8
43% 20 Dallas 38 20.9, 19 Philadelphia 23 25.0
43% 18 Tampa Bay 34 24.7, 8 San Diego 24 27.5
42% 4 Houston 13 26.6, 5 Chicago 6 28.6
38% 16 Cincinnati 31 24.0, 2 New York Giants 13 30.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.78 1 0.00 3 0.90 0 0.00 1 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 8.9 0.79
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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