prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 1 New England 59 37.8, 21 Indianapolis 24 20.4
86% 3 Houston 43 33.6, 31 Jacksonville 37 14.3
76% 4 Atlanta 23 29.3, 23 Arizona 19 17.8
65% 2 Green Bay 24 33.8, 17 Detroit 20 28.1
64% 11 New Orleans 38 34.9, 30 Oakland 17 28.0
56% 20 New York Jets 27 24.5, 32 St. Louis 13 18.6
56% 19 Dallas 23 24.3, 27 Cleveland 20 17.5
56% 16 Tampa Bay 27 27.2, 29 Carolina 21 23.9
56% 13 Cincinnati 28 23.8, 28 Kansas City 6 21.9
56% 12 Denver 30 26.6, 9 San Diego 23 24.2
55% 10 San Francisco 32 22.6, 8 Chicago 7 21.0
52% 26 Washington 31 24.9, 22 Philadelphia 6 24.3
51% 25 Buffalo 19 23.3, 18 Miami 14 23.1
44% 5 Baltimore 13 21.3, 6 Pittsburgh 10 25.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.62 2 1.55 1 1.31 1 1.16 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 13 8.8 1.48
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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