prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
73% 13 Cincinnati 34 32.7, 30 Oakland 10 21.6
72% 1 New England 49 32.2, 17 New York Jets 19 23.2
69% 2 Houston 34 32.5, 16 Detroit 31 26.3
64% 10 Chicago 28 27.8, 21 Minnesota 10 19.7
59% 25 Indianapolis 20 29.2, 22 Buffalo 13 25.6
59% 11 Denver 17 26.0, 28 Kansas City 9 20.2
57% 7 Atlanta 24 28.3, 18 Tampa Bay 23 25.8
57% 5 New York Giants 38 30.1, 3 Green Bay 10 28.4
55% 20 Miami 24 21.1, 15 Seattle 21 19.2
50% 4 Baltimore 16 24.7, 12 San Diego 13 24.6
42% 9 San Francisco 31 24.2, 8 New Orleans 21 28.0
41% 31 Jacksonville 24 21.3, 14 Tennessee 19 26.3
39% 27 Cleveland 20 16.1, 6 Pittsburgh 14 24.0
39% 26 Washington 38 21.2, 19 Dallas 31 27.5
34% 29 Carolina 30 18.7, 23 Philadelphia 22 26.7
31% 32 St. Louis 31 17.2, 24 Arizona 17 27.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.32 6 0.51 2 1.38 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 9.9 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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