prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 1 New England 28 36.0, 18 Miami 0 18.1
81% 12 San Diego 24 33.1, 32 Oakland 21 17.4
78% 6 Denver 38 31.3, 29 Kansas City 3 15.8
77% 5 New York Giants 42 31.9, 25 Philadelphia 7 20.2
74% 13 Seattle 20 29.4, 31 St. Louis 13 15.0
68% 11 San Francisco 27 27.6, 23 Arizona 13 17.4
67% 19 Tennessee 38 28.4, 30 Jacksonville 20 17.5
66% 9 Pittsburgh 24 26.8, 26 Cleveland 10 14.5
57% 14 Chicago 26 28.3, 24 Detroit 24 25.8
53% 20 Washington 28 26.5, 15 Dallas 18 25.7
52% 7 Cincinnati 23 24.2, 4 Baltimore 17 23.7
48% 21 Indianapolis 28 26.1, 10 Houston 16 26.5
43% 27 Buffalo 28 21.5, 16 New York Jets 9 24.0
43% 17 Minnesota 37 24.7, 2 Green Bay 34 28.7
26% 22 Carolina 44 23.4, 8 New Orleans 38 32.7
21% 28 Tampa Bay 22 18.1, 3 Atlanta 17 33.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.92 3 1.49 5 0.78 2 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.8 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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