prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 3 Green Bay 24 33.3, 17 Minnesota 10 20.7
67% 5 Baltimore 24 30.1, 19 Indianapolis 9 19.6
57% 12 Houston 19 25.6, 8 Cincinnati 13 23.7
53% 13 Seattle 24 25.6, 21 Washington 14 24.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.81 1 1.49 1 1.27 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 4 2.6 1.56
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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