prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
63% 17 Cincinnati 20 22.4, 23 Pittsburgh 10 16.0
63% 7 Houston 30 28.8, 11 Tennessee 24 23.7
63% 6 New Orleans 16 28.2, 25 Tampa Bay 14 23.8
63% 1 Denver 41 34.3, 13 New York Giants 23 29.9
61% 30 Oakland 19 25.6, 32 Jacksonville 9 14.4
61% 24 Buffalo 24 21.2, 27 Carolina 23 16.9
61% 10 Atlanta 31 27.5, 26 St. Louis 24 17.5
61% 9 Green Bay 38 37.9, 28 Washington 20 24.7
61% 5 Chicago 31 29.3, 22 Minnesota 30 18.7
60% 19 Baltimore 14 31.2, 31 Cleveland 6 18.7
60% 2 New England 13 29.2, 15 New York Jets 10 16.8
55% 4 Seattle 29 21.3, 3 San Francisco 3 19.4
50% 16 Kansas City 17 22.6, 8 Dallas 16 22.5
47% 12 Miami 24 18.6, 20 Indianapolis 20 19.5
42% 29 Arizona 25 26.7, 18 Detroit 21 29.3
38% 21 San Diego 33 22.7, 14 Philadelphia 30 29.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.93 12 1.49 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 13 9.6 1.36
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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