prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 3 Denver 35 41.3, 32 Jacksonville 19 16.7
77% 10 Chicago 27 31.8, 29 New York Giants 21 18.3
74% 11 Kansas City 24 25.3, 31 Oakland 7 12.3
67% 17 Dallas 31 29.3, 25 Washington 16 22.4
66% 7 Seattle 20 25.5, 13 Tennessee 13 18.4
65% 8 San Francisco 32 22.5, 19 Arizona 20 14.4
62% 9 Cincinnati 27 22.8, 24 Buffalo 24 20.3
60% 2 New England 30 26.7, 1 New Orleans 27 22.6
52% 12 San Diego 19 24.9, 5 Indianapolis 9 24.7
39% 30 St. Louis 38 23.6, 27 Houston 13 30.2
39% 26 Philadelphia 31 20.7, 28 Tampa Bay 20 23.6
39% 20 Pittsburgh 19 20.0, 22 New York Jets 6 23.3
39% 16 Carolina 35 21.9, 21 Minnesota 10 24.6
39% 4 Green Bay 19 23.9, 6 Baltimore 17 27.2
37% 18 Detroit 31 23.8, 23 Cleveland 17 25.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.80 10 0.64 2 1.33 1 1.16 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 9 9.8 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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