prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 1 New England 55 27.7, 17 Pittsburgh 31 14.8
79% 10 Seattle 27 27.3, 29 Tampa Bay 24 15.0
74% 14 Dallas 27 31.5, 25 Minnesota 23 21.5
62% 12 Carolina 34 25.3, 16 Atlanta 10 19.8
61% 18 Tennessee 28 22.2, 27 St. Louis 21 20.9
61% 8 Indianapolis 27 31.3, 30 Houston 24 25.4
57% 22 Philadelphia 49 22.2, 31 Oakland 20 21.4
57% 13 Kansas City 23 22.3, 24 Buffalo 13 21.5
39% 28 Cleveland 24 18.0, 7 Baltimore 18 23.7
39% 15 Miami 22 20.5, 5 Cincinnati 20 21.7
37% 23 Washington 30 24.7, 9 San Diego 24 26.5
33% 26 New York Jets 26 19.8, 2 New Orleans 20 29.1
23% 11 Chicago 27 21.3, 3 Green Bay 20 30.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.75 7 0.69 3 0.87 1 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 8 8.6 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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