prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 5 Cincinnati 41 27.8, 30 Cleveland 20 15.7
78% 4 Seattle 41 29.4, 23 Minnesota 20 18.4
75% 2 New Orleans 23 27.8, 6 San Francisco 20 19.9
69% 3 Denver 27 29.4, 12 Kansas City 17 21.9
68% 11 Philadelphia 24 30.8, 25 Washington 16 22.2
63% 21 Miami 20 22.9, 13 San Diego 16 21.5
62% 28 Tampa Bay 41 24.1, 22 Atlanta 28 22.0
62% 27 Buffalo 37 23.7, 26 New York Jets 14 20.7
62% 10 Chicago 23 23.1, 9 Baltimore 20 20.1
61% 16 Arizona 27 23.9, 32 Jacksonville 14 17.3
61% 14 Pittsburgh 37 27.7, 20 Detroit 27 21.7
47% 19 New York Giants 27 24.9, 7 Green Bay 13 25.3
40% 18 Indianapolis 30 21.0, 15 Tennessee 27 25.8
38% 8 Carolina 24 20.7, 1 New England 20 23.3
33% 31 Oakland 28 24.7, 29 Houston 23 33.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 10 1.26 2 1.31 1 1.23 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 11 9.8 1.12
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net