prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 11 Green Bay 26 31.0, 27 Minnesota 26 21.0
69% 6 Baltimore 19 24.5, 24 New York Jets 3 14.4
69% 1 New England 34 33.5, 3 Denver 31 25.7
66% 2 New Orleans 17 30.1, 23 Atlanta 13 23.7
62% 8 San Francisco 27 24.8, 28 Washington 6 22.4
61% 12 Tennessee 23 25.4, 31 Oakland 19 19.8
60% 17 Arizona 40 24.8, 20 Indianapolis 11 20.4
60% 13 Pittsburgh 27 25.1, 30 Cleveland 11 20.9
50% 7 Carolina 20 18.8, 19 Miami 16 18.9
39% 21 Tampa Bay 24 23.6, 22 Detroit 21 26.5
39% 18 Dallas 24 22.4, 15 New York Giants 21 27.6
38% 14 San Diego 41 18.9, 16 Kansas City 38 21.8
37% 25 St. Louis 42 21.5, 10 Chicago 21 23.5
33% 32 Jacksonville 13 23.9, 29 Houston 6 32.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.91 11 0.85 0 0.00 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 8.9 0.78
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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