prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 13 Atlanta 27 31.8, 32 Washington 26 19.5
65% 23 Indianapolis 25 34.0, 27 Houston 3 27.4
64% 8 Carolina 30 23.3, 25 New York Jets 20 14.2
63% 22 Minnesota 48 26.8, 14 Philadelphia 30 25.4
63% 2 Seattle 23 23.0, 18 New York Giants 0 20.8
61% 15 Chicago 38 27.3, 29 Cleveland 31 23.6
61% 12 Pittsburgh 30 22.6, 5 Cincinnati 20 21.2
60% 7 Kansas City 56 25.2, 31 Oakland 31 19.3
60% 4 Baltimore 18 25.4, 24 Detroit 16 21.5
50% 10 Green Bay 37 27.2, 21 Dallas 36 27.2
42% 11 San Francisco 33 19.0, 20 Tampa Bay 14 20.0
40% 26 St. Louis 27 22.8, 6 New Orleans 16 26.9
40% 16 Miami 24 23.0, 1 New England 20 26.9
39% 17 Arizona 37 20.7, 19 Tennessee 34 24.1
37% 28 Buffalo 27 20.9, 30 Jacksonville 20 23.2
35% 9 San Diego 27 25.2, 3 Denver 20 32.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.60 12 0.94 1 1.26 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 9.9 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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