prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 9 San Diego 26 32.4, 32 Oakland 13 16.8
66% 23 New York Jets 24 27.8, 29 Cleveland 13 20.3
66% 4 Cincinnati 42 28.9, 18 Minnesota 14 21.4
63% 17 Philadelphia 54 28.1, 14 Chicago 11 26.0
61% 25 St. Louis 23 23.0, 24 Tampa Bay 13 19.5
61% 12 Carolina 17 24.5, 8 New Orleans 13 21.9
60% 10 San Francisco 34 23.8, 11 Atlanta 24 20.0
60% 3 Denver 37 36.9, 27 Houston 13 31.9
59% 20 Dallas 24 28.8, 31 Washington 23 27.6
56% 21 Tennessee 20 23.3, 30 Jacksonville 16 22.5
43% 1 New England 41 23.5, 5 Baltimore 7 24.3
38% 22 New York Giants 23 23.1, 26 Detroit 20 25.4
37% 28 Buffalo 19 21.3, 15 Miami 0 23.2
36% 19 Indianapolis 23 20.2, 7 Kansas City 7 27.7
34% 13 Pittsburgh 38 22.5, 6 Green Bay 31 28.8
25% 16 Arizona 17 16.5, 2 Seattle 10 26.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.16 11 1.01 1 0.00 1 1.16 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.3 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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