prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 1 New England 34 34.2, 27 Buffalo 20 15.7
83% 7 New Orleans 42 29.4, 26 Tampa Bay 17 19.1
79% 9 Pittsburgh 20 31.2, 30 Cleveland 7 18.8
78% 3 Seattle 27 26.2, 23 St. Louis 9 14.9
72% 15 Indianapolis 30 28.2, 31 Jacksonville 10 17.1
71% 20 Tennessee 16 33.5, 29 Houston 10 25.1
68% 21 New York Giants 20 28.1, 28 Washington 6 20.1
67% 2 Denver 34 33.7, 32 Oakland 14 22.8
62% 25 Minnesota 14 29.3, 24 Detroit 13 25.2
61% 6 San Diego 27 25.4, 14 Kansas City 24 19.2
60% 4 Cincinnati 34 23.4, 12 Baltimore 17 18.2
54% 5 San Francisco 23 21.6, 16 Arizona 20 21.2
49% 10 Green Bay 33 28.3, 19 Chicago 28 28.4
40% 22 New York Jets 20 18.2, 18 Miami 7 23.3
39% 11 Philadelphia 24 27.7, 17 Dallas 22 29.1
38% 8 Carolina 21 21.0, 13 Atlanta 20 23.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.89 6 1.05 4 1.33 2 1.16 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 10.8 1.11
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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