prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
75% 6 Pittsburgh 30 27.0, 30 Cleveland 27 13.8
71% 23 New York Jets 19 25.7, 31 Oakland 14 15.6
69% 14 Philadelphia 34 27.6, 32 Jacksonville 17 16.3
64% 2 Denver 31 31.0, 19 Indianapolis 24 21.9
62% 27 Houston 17 26.4, 25 Washington 6 22.0
61% 16 Detroit 35 26.4, 20 New York Giants 14 23.5
60% 7 Seattle 36 24.7, 3 Green Bay 16 22.5
54% 15 Atlanta 37 26.2, 4 New Orleans 34 25.4
49% 22 Arizona 18 23.2, 11 San Diego 17 23.3
48% 18 Minnesota 34 22.2, 29 St. Louis 6 22.6
41% 9 San Francisco 28 21.8, 12 Dallas 17 23.5
39% 21 Carolina 20 18.3, 26 Tampa Bay 14 20.0
37% 24 Miami 33 19.9, 1 New England 20 26.3
37% 17 Tennessee 26 19.9, 13 Kansas City 10 25.7
37% 8 Cincinnati 23 18.9, 5 Baltimore 16 24.1
32% 28 Buffalo 23 16.9, 10 Chicago 20 27.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.46 10 0.79 2 1.37 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 10.0 0.80
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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