prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
71% 8 Denver 24 29.5, 29 Kansas City 17 16.0
62% 30 Washington 41 20.1, 31 Jacksonville 10 14.1
62% 23 Houston 30 19.5, 27 Oakland 14 16.9
62% 20 Baltimore 26 23.9, 13 Pittsburgh 6 21.8
62% 19 Green Bay 31 22.7, 24 New York Jets 24 19.5
62% 16 Arizona 25 23.1, 28 New York Giants 14 19.0
62% 6 Cincinnati 24 30.9, 9 Atlanta 10 23.9
50% 18 Carolina 24 23.1, 4 Detroit 7 23.0
49% 12 Buffalo 29 23.3, 7 Miami 10 23.5
48% 21 Cleveland 26 30.6, 11 New Orleans 24 31.2
47% 10 Philadelphia 30 25.9, 17 Indianapolis 27 26.5
38% 15 San Diego 30 20.7, 1 Seattle 21 25.9
35% 14 New England 30 19.4, 2 Minnesota 7 32.3
30% 22 Dallas 26 15.2, 3 Tennessee 10 30.1
28% 32 St. Louis 19 9.4, 26 Tampa Bay 17 23.3
26% 25 Chicago 28 14.3, 5 San Francisco 20 29.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.48 8 1.20 4 0.35 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 9.9 0.81
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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