prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 4 San Diego 33 37.2, 32 Jacksonville 14 9.4
73% 12 Indianapolis 41 28.0, 27 Tennessee 17 18.9
66% 8 Dallas 38 29.7, 15 New Orleans 17 24.1
64% 14 Baltimore 38 24.4, 24 Carolina 10 14.4
62% 18 San Francisco 26 25.1, 7 Philadelphia 21 24.0
59% 25 Houston 23 20.4, 17 Buffalo 17 19.2
58% 16 Detroit 24 22.9, 26 New York Jets 17 21.9
42% 28 Miami 38 19.4, 31 Oakland 14 20.6
39% 23 New York Giants 45 20.6, 20 Washington 14 25.4
39% 11 Green Bay 38 23.4, 10 Chicago 17 29.4
38% 22 Minnesota 41 21.4, 5 Atlanta 28 25.3
38% 19 Kansas City 41 20.1, 2 New England 14 23.7
23% 29 Tampa Bay 27 15.2, 3 Pittsburgh 24 34.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.15 7 0.69 2 0.67 1 1.14 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 7 8.5 0.82
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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