prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 11 Philadelphia 34 34.6, 30 St. Louis 28 18.5
80% 7 Dallas 20 30.5, 23 Houston 17 19.5
80% 6 San Diego 31 30.9, 28 New York Jets 0 15.2
75% 14 Pittsburgh 17 32.5, 32 Jacksonville 9 19.4
72% 4 Green Bay 42 29.4, 21 Minnesota 10 18.8
69% 5 Seattle 27 27.7, 26 Washington 17 19.3
65% 19 New Orleans 37 28.2, 25 Tampa Bay 31 19.5
63% 3 Denver 41 26.2, 10 Arizona 20 21.0
62% 18 New York Giants 30 29.9, 15 Atlanta 20 26.1
57% 16 San Francisco 22 21.3, 9 Kansas City 17 20.6
38% 29 Carolina 31 22.0, 17 Chicago 24 24.1
38% 24 Cleveland 29 19.9, 27 Tennessee 28 24.1
38% 8 New England 43 18.8, 1 Cincinnati 17 22.6
37% 12 Indianapolis 20 24.9, 2 Baltimore 13 26.8
36% 20 Buffalo 17 16.8, 13 Detroit 14 24.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.76 9 0.70 4 1.30 1 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 10 10.2 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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