prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 5 San Diego 31 30.0, 31 Oakland 28 13.6
81% 28 Tennessee 16 27.5, 32 Jacksonville 14 15.3
74% 8 Cincinnati 37 27.6, 27 Carolina 37 15.4
73% 15 Arizona 30 29.1, 26 Washington 20 17.7
73% 1 Denver 31 31.6, 29 New York Jets 17 18.7
70% 12 San Francisco 31 26.3, 30 St. Louis 17 17.9
69% 3 Baltimore 48 27.2, 25 Tampa Bay 17 17.7
65% 2 Green Bay 27 29.4, 21 Miami 24 23.4
63% 10 Indianapolis 33 24.4, 23 Houston 28 23.2
62% 11 Philadelphia 27 29.8, 14 New York Giants 0 26.6
61% 4 New England 37 23.6, 20 Buffalo 22 20.1
50% 17 Detroit 17 20.7, 24 Minnesota 3 20.6
44% 22 Cleveland 31 24.6, 13 Pittsburgh 10 25.4
37% 16 Chicago 27 26.8, 18 Atlanta 13 28.9
30% 9 Dallas 30 19.8, 6 Seattle 23 28.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.94 6 1.31 5 0.83 2 1.23 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 11 10.1 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net