prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 82% 5 San Diego 31 30.0, 31 Oakland 28 13.6 81% 28 Tennessee 16 27.5, 32 Jacksonville 14 15.3 74% 8 Cincinnati 37 27.6, 27 Carolina 37 15.4 73% 15 Arizona 30 29.1, 26 Washington 20 17.7 73% 1 Denver 31 31.6, 29 New York Jets 17 18.7 70% 12 San Francisco 31 26.3, 30 St. Louis 17 17.9 69% 3 Baltimore 48 27.2, 25 Tampa Bay 17 17.7 65% 2 Green Bay 27 29.4, 21 Miami 24 23.4 63% 10 Indianapolis 33 24.4, 23 Houston 28 23.2 62% 11 Philadelphia 27 29.8, 14 New York Giants 0 26.6 61% 4 New England 37 23.6, 20 Buffalo 22 20.1 50% 17 Detroit 17 20.7, 24 Minnesota 3 20.6 44% 22 Cleveland 31 24.6, 13 Pittsburgh 10 25.4 37% 16 Chicago 27 26.8, 18 Atlanta 13 28.9 30% 9 Dallas 30 19.8, 6 Seattle 23 28.2 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 2 0.94 6 1.31 5 0.83 2 1.23 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 11 10.1 1.09 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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