prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 3 New England 27 33.6, 28 New York Jets 25 14.3
85% 1 Baltimore 29 33.4, 23 Atlanta 7 15.5
78% 4 Green Bay 38 34.7, 20 Carolina 17 22.6
77% 6 Dallas 31 29.5, 19 New York Giants 21 19.2
77% 2 Denver 42 29.6, 10 San Francisco 17 20.7
68% 14 Arizona 24 27.2, 31 Oakland 13 18.1
66% 22 Buffalo 17 22.5, 26 Minnesota 16 15.6
64% 25 Washington 19 25.1, 27 Tennessee 17 21.2
62% 15 Detroit 24 27.1, 17 New Orleans 23 20.3
61% 11 Indianapolis 27 30.0, 12 Cincinnati 0 24.5
60% 16 Pittsburgh 30 23.8, 24 Houston 23 18.9
37% 8 Kansas City 23 21.3, 5 San Diego 20 25.7
34% 32 Jacksonville 24 19.4, 18 Cleveland 6 28.9
30% 21 Miami 27 19.5, 13 Chicago 14 27.1
29% 29 St. Louis 28 18.6, 9 Seattle 26 28.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 8 1.17 5 0.81 1 1.17 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 11 10.6 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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