prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 4 New England 51 31.4, 17 Chicago 23 19.8
87% 9 Kansas City 34 32.8, 28 St. Louis 7 16.0
78% 1 Denver 35 33.3, 6 San Diego 21 23.7
70% 12 Miami 27 24.7, 32 Jacksonville 13 16.5
69% 25 Cleveland 23 26.7, 31 Oakland 13 17.6
62% 26 Minnesota 19 23.8, 30 Tampa Bay 13 22.2
62% 16 Detroit 22 24.2, 24 Atlanta 21 22.0
60% 10 Seattle 13 25.2, 20 Carolina 9 21.9
58% 15 Arizona 24 26.0, 7 Philadelphia 20 25.5
45% 22 Houston 30 21.9, 29 Tennessee 16 22.4
45% 21 Buffalo 43 19.6, 27 New York Jets 23 20.1
38% 18 New Orleans 44 27.1, 3 Green Bay 23 32.0
38% 14 Pittsburgh 51 23.3, 5 Indianapolis 34 26.4
35% 13 Cincinnati 27 18.3, 2 Baltimore 24 25.0
16% 23 Washington 20 18.8, 8 Dallas 17 32.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.88 7 0.88 1 1.28 3 0.77 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 9 10.2 0.88
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net