prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 1 New England 34 32.9, 17 Detroit 9 17.0
88% 10 Indianapolis 23 34.0, 32 Jacksonville 3 17.0
86% 12 San Francisco 17 27.4, 29 Washington 13 14.8
80% 8 Philadelphia 43 32.0, 30 Tennessee 24 20.0
73% 19 Buffalo 38 23.6, 28 New York Jets 3 15.4
73% 18 Chicago 21 27.1, 27 Tampa Bay 13 20.0
73% 2 Green Bay 24 30.6, 22 Minnesota 21 22.2
72% 16 San Diego 27 25.7, 24 St. Louis 24 17.3
66% 6 Seattle 19 24.3, 14 Arizona 3 18.9
62% 5 Baltimore 34 25.4, 13 New Orleans 27 23.5
62% 3 Denver 39 26.2, 7 Miami 36 21.6
60% 9 Dallas 31 26.8, 23 New York Giants 28 24.0
38% 15 Cincinnati 22 21.3, 20 Houston 13 23.6
35% 25 Cleveland 26 19.1, 21 Atlanta 24 25.1
19% 31 Oakland 24 15.2, 4 Kansas City 20 28.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.68 5 0.95 4 1.38 5 0.94 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 12 10.9 1.10
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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