prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 10 Indianapolis 49 30.8, 27 Washington 27 19.2
80% 17 Buffalo 26 23.9, 25 Cleveland 10 14.9
79% 24 St. Louis 52 26.1, 31 Oakland 0 18.0
71% 22 Minnesota 31 24.2, 26 Carolina 13 17.2
66% 20 Houston 45 26.0, 29 Tennessee 21 18.5
64% 8 Miami 16 24.9, 30 New York Jets 13 16.9
62% 18 Detroit 34 24.1, 19 Chicago 17 18.2
61% 11 Cincinnati 14 23.7, 28 Tampa Bay 13 19.4
43% 6 Seattle 19 19.1, 13 San Francisco 3 19.7
41% 32 Jacksonville 25 21.0, 23 New York Giants 24 23.7
40% 7 Philadelphia 33 27.7, 9 Dallas 10 32.1
40% 4 Denver 29 24.5, 5 Kansas City 16 28.2
38% 21 Atlanta 29 21.5, 15 Arizona 18 22.8
37% 2 Green Bay 26 30.8, 1 New England 21 31.8
32% 16 New Orleans 35 25.2, 12 Pittsburgh 32 31.4
20% 14 San Diego 34 17.6, 3 Baltimore 33 28.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.00 8 0.79 3 1.31 2 0.61 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 10.8 0.74
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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