prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 4 Baltimore 20 33.6, 32 Jacksonville 12 11.3
91% 1 New England 41 31.2, 12 Miami 13 17.2
89% 6 Kansas City 31 31.3, 31 Oakland 13 12.3
81% 20 New York Giants 24 29.8, 29 Washington 13 18.8
77% 8 Indianapolis 17 31.3, 23 Houston 10 23.0
76% 5 Seattle 17 24.2, 22 San Francisco 7 12.9
73% 24 Carolina 19 25.5, 27 Tampa Bay 17 18.1
63% 3 Denver 22 28.6, 11 San Diego 10 27.1
62% 14 Cincinnati 30 21.7, 26 Cleveland 0 20.0
59% 15 Detroit 16 24.4, 18 Minnesota 14 19.7
59% 9 Pittsburgh 27 29.1, 21 Atlanta 20 28.1
38% 16 New Orleans 31 26.8, 25 Chicago 15 28.7
37% 28 New York Jets 16 21.8, 30 Tennessee 11 22.7
37% 10 Dallas 38 26.0, 7 Philadelphia 27 30.9
36% 19 Buffalo 21 23.3, 2 Green Bay 13 27.5
36% 17 Arizona 12 17.5, 13 St. Louis 6 22.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.70 7 0.45 3 1.33 2 1.18 2 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 11.4 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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