prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 86% 1 New England 17 31.9, 26 New York Jets 16 16.7 79% 24 Carolina 17 24.5, 28 Cleveland 13 16.5 78% 3 Green Bay 20 30.8, 27 Tampa Bay 3 21.1 66% 16 Miami 37 24.1, 19 Minnesota 35 19.3 63% 9 Dallas 42 30.9, 8 Indianapolis 7 26.4 62% 7 Pittsburgh 20 25.6, 6 Kansas City 12 23.3 59% 32 Jacksonville 21 22.8, 30 Tennessee 13 19.0 57% 5 Seattle 35 18.8, 15 Arizona 6 18.1 55% 17 Detroit 20 23.1, 25 Chicago 14 22.6 41% 23 Houston 25 21.2, 4 Baltimore 13 25.1 39% 21 New York Giants 37 19.5, 18 St. Louis 27 24.8 38% 11 Cincinnati 37 24.7, 2 Denver 28 26.6 36% 13 San Diego 38 19.2, 20 San Francisco 35 20.6 33% 29 Washington 27 22.5, 10 Philadelphia 24 29.8 32% 22 Atlanta 30 25.0, 12 New Orleans 14 31.8 30% 31 Oakland 26 17.0, 14 Buffalo 24 24.1 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 4 1.30 9 0.51 2 1.27 1 1.16 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.6 0.85 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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